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Friday, 5 April 2013

North and the 2015 presidency

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TO some observers, the leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) plans to choose President Goodluck Jonathan as the sole aspirant for its presidential ticket for the 2015 election. Supporters of the president, especially his kinsmen from the South- South, have also been unrelenting in trying to convince other stakeholders on the need for the president to continue in office. The likes of Chief Edwin Clark, Tompolo, Asari  Dokubo and others from the  president’s zone had, in several interviews, appeared to have threatened thunder and brimstone if the President was not allowed to succeed himself in office, come 2015.These remarks were often met with stiff reactions from  many Northerners who still nursed the grudge that the North  was politically shortchanged in 2011.

The thinking among many Northerners after the demise of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua , was that  power should  be allowed to remain in the region. After Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s eight years in office as President, they hoped that it would be Arewa’s turn to preside over the affairs of Nigeria for the next eight years. But the dream was cut short with Yar’Adua’s death and the emergence of Jonathan who the constitution and the political exigencies of that period, favored to be the President.
And as the clock ticks faster towards 2015, the presidential race is taking shape among stakeholders in the North even as the various power blocs have commenced the re-oiling of their political machinery ahead of the big contest. Although President Goodluck Jonathan had not, through words or action showed any desperation about 2015, the North had since opposed   the plan by the PDP to choose him only for its presidential primaries.
For instance, the pan Northern socio-cultural organisation, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) and the Coalition of Northern Politicians, Academics, Professionals and Businessmen (CNPAPB) had kicked against the move which they described as undemocratic. According to them, the PDP does not have the final say on who becomes president in 2015 and imposing Jonathan will not only cause chaos and collapse of the party but will also limit the choice of Nigerians during the 2015 election.
The ACF argued that if Jonathan is allowed to be the sole aspirant for the presidential primaries, it would limit the democratic space by reducing the choice of candidates. “As a result,  the right of members of the ruling party to participate in the choice of their presidential candidate will be short changed. Nigerians’ choice will also be limited. It is to be noted that even in America, when candidacy is conceded to the incumbent; it is not forced but brought about by consensus by members of the ruling party. And that was why Senator Kennedy was not barred from contesting the primaries with President Jimmy Carter in the early 80s.”
The ACF maintained that the practices of limiting candidacy to incumbency cannot promote democracy that is premised on the triple foundation of liberty, justice and common decency. Mr. Anthony Sani, ACF’s spokesperson said “when you talk about the effect of such development on the aspiration of the North to vie for the presidency in 2015, you at once conveying an impression that the primaries in PDP are final. Nigerians can still make judicious use of their democratic rights and vote candidates in some other parties, more so in a clime where most of the political parties are mere clones of one another in terms of their approach to solving the myriad of problems of Nigeria.
“Nigerians should not allow the actions of a few or of a party to determine how they think, what they say and what they do. Nigerians should shape events and not allow events to shape us. There is no need for chaos since voters have the final say. Instead of causing any chaos, voters should make judicious use of their democratic rights and vote leaders of their choice,” he said.
The Chairman of the Northern states Governor’s Forum (NSGF) and Governor of Niger State, Muazu Babangida Aliyu,  who many see as nursing an ambition for the presidency ,had also told the world  that President Jonathan had in 2011, signed a pact with the governors to spend a single term in office. But the ACF was of the view that agreements, whether signed or not, do not produce presidents in a democracy.
“Only Nigerian voters can produce the president. Somehow, I believe that  both the controversy about agreement and court cases have been brought into the open for a higher cause. Nigerians deserve leaders they can rely upon to deliver on their promises. Though northerners aspire to be president in 2015, they would do so democratically, and not undemocratically.”
 Similarly, the convener of CNPAPB, Dr. Junaid Mohammed, warned against imposing Jonathan as the sole aspirant in PDP primaries. He said doing so would tear the country apart and even the international community would react to it.
According to him, “the second term governors are not the only ones aspiring to be president. Let PDP become an automatic consensus candidate party and let’s see how the party survives. That will lead to a collapse of PDP and that is the best possible outcome for the country. If they do that, there will be reaction and the reaction will not be only from the rest of the country, but also from the international community. This is because the international community will not want to pay the price of Nigeria breaking down, because they will not want to bring their marines here to stop us from tearing ourselves apart.”
Commenting on how the alleged proposed amendment of the PDP constitution to make Jonathan the sole candidate could affect his ambition in 2015, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar said in an interview that as a loyal PDP member, he was keenly watching the development and could do anything within democratic means and internal mechanisms of conflict resolution to tackle the challenge.
Atiku, who was picked as the Northern consensus candidate by the Ciroma committee in 2011, said as the ruling party that prided itself as the largest in Africa, the PDP should set standards for internal democracy which should be a template for other parties.
“In fact, they (members) should not only be proud of its size but also of its credibility in the eyes of Nigerians. Promoting the principles of democracy is the bedrock on which the PDP was founded in 1998 by like-minded Nigerians. Therefore, any attempt to stifle internal democracy, make level playing field impossible and imposing a candidate on the party before the elections would damage the perception of the party. I am happy that the National Chairman, Bamanga Tukur, has been speaking along these lines. President Jonathan is entitled to seek the party ticket but that doesn’t mean others should be shut out completely through a party constitutional amendment,” he said.
The Turakin Adamawa explained that  “this amendment is unnecessary because it would set precedents that would undermine the democratic principles to which the party declared to be committed. Nothing gives us psychological satisfaction and ease better than winning fairly. With this amendment, however, can the PDP improve its public perception and convince fellow members that it is committed to fairness, transparency and a level playing field in the conduct of its internal affairs? If we don’t reject this amendment now, it would produce problems in the future that the party may find too embarrassing to handle. This effort to amend the constitution to please the ambition of any individual is in bad faith. In fact, it defeats the whole purpose of the policy of reconciliation and re-uniting aggrieved former members.”
Atiku said if PDP members are free to vote according to their conscience or personal convictions of what is right, the amendment may face tough opposition.
“Should we mutilate a whole legal document by which a party is run for the sake of anyone else’s ambition or ego? President Jonathan can throw this hat into the ring, if that is what he wants. It is important, however, that the process of his nomination by the party should be open, fair, just and transparent. The contest should be conducted through open primaries. Other party members should be allowed to participate in the primaries. If they ultimately lose to Jonathan through a fair contest, they will embrace and congratulate him. What is wrong with open primaries or level-playing field? Amending the PDP constitution for the sake of making President Jonathan the sole candidate is absolutely unnecessary. Exclusion in the nomination of candidates amounts to imposition which is inconsistent with democratic practice.”
“I have read all manners of arguments by proponents, saying that the American system gives the option of first refusal to the incumbent and that the PDP should do the same. That is very misleading. In the first place, it is not true that American incumbents are not challenged at party primaries; there is no such rule in the United States. The late Senator Edward Kennedy mounted a vigorous challenge against the then incumbent Jimmy Carter. Although Carter won, the contest went down to the wire. It was resolved through a vote at the nomination convention of the Democratic Party,” he said.
On whether it was true that Jonathan had signed the one term pact with Northern governors, Atiku said with the zoning policy of the PDP virtually dead, talking about agreements at this point is somehow a tricky issue. “I am not sure I am in the right position to talk about what you call the one-term agreement. Governor Babangida Aliyu of Niger State recently referred to that agreement or understanding. A gentleman’s word should be his bond. I contested against Jonathan during the 2011 PDP presidential primaries and, therefore, anything I say now might be subject to misinterpretation. Because of this fact, I don’t want to belabour the points about agreements or understandings. I am, however, primarily concerned about the image of my party in the eyes of Nigerians. Changing rules or the constitution of the party for the sake of expediency is not my idea of honour. If we conveniently live in denial or pretend that the party didn’t reach any understanding on anything, then who would take us seriously? How can you be a beneficiary of something and later pretend that the policy that put you in office is no longer relevant?
“The emergence of (House of Representatives) Speaker Aminu Tambuwal against the party insistence on zoning was a consequence of abandoning principle for the sake of expediency. With the election of Tambuwal as the Speaker, following the party’s declaration that zoning was dead, the PDP leadership was morally disarmed to prevent the emergence of Tambuwal as Speaker in the so-called breach of zoning policy – the same power sharing formula, which the party declared dead. Such is the consequence of hypocrisy.The election of Tambuwal was a most embarrassing moment for the PDP. If you rejected zoning for the nomination of President Jonathan, what moral right do you have to tell lawmakers to elect their Speaker based on zoning, which you discarded?”
“When people are blinded by expediency, they hardly foresee the consequences of opportunism. Today, the President is from the South-South geopolitical zone; Vice-President, North-West;  President of the Senate, North-Central;  Speaker of the House of Representatives, North-West; Chief Justice of Nigeria, North-West; Secretary to the Government of the Federation, South-East; Deputy Senate President, South-East;  and Deputy Speaker, South-East. This wasn’t the intention of the abandoned zoning policy, but we have to live with this unpleasant reality because of the myopic attitude of some people. The South-West is today crying very loudly about marginalisation, thanks to the abandonment of zoning for the sake of expediency.
“This issue is not about Atiku but about the imperative of sustaining arrangements that would guarantee every section of Nigeria access to the nation’s highest public office. We have been called names by people that benefitted from this arrangement. Zoning had successfully achieved the objectives of equitable power sharing. If anybody now says zoning is not good, that wouldn’t change the reality of its benefits. The arrangement had significantly reduced the fear of domination by any section or group over others,” he said.
When asked whether the revived Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) is strong enough to stop Jonathan from winning election come 2015,he said he had nothing personally against President Jonathan.
“The issue here is about principle and internal democracy. This is not about PDM; it is about a struggle to entrench internal democracy. Should we destroy everything internal democracy stands for just for the sake of forcing anybody into line to support only one contestant? The PDP, like any political organization, is a convergence of various political interests and forces that came together to form the party, as it is today. I would work together with all stakeholders within the PDP to bring about positive change from within PDP. This issue is not merely about PDM. The principle behind my struggle is beyond the PDM,” he said.
For now, the Bamanga Tukur-led PDP could only pretend that all is well within the party because a number of its governors from the North have continued to distance themselves from the party as was noticed during his reconciliation tour of the region. Already, there is a clamour in the region for a Sule Lamido and Rotimi Amaechi ticket against 2015 and posters to that effect flooded Kaduna last week when Tukur was in the state capital for his reconciliation meeting.
Reports also have it that apart from Babangida Aliyu, Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State; Governor Ibrahim Shema of Katsina State, or even Vice President Namadi Sambo and others are speculated as nursing individual ambitions to succeed Jonathan in 2015 once a level-play ground was provided by the system. Meanwhile, the opposition parties under the proposed All Progressive Congress (APC), are watching the unfolding political drama in the PDP patiently, and would hope to capitalise on the seeming division in the ruling party to coast to victory during election.

Source:Tribune

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